Dick Jauron and Decision Theory

I hesitated posting this week since the Bills (miraculously? luckily?) prevailed over the Jets on Sunday. However, after thinking about the game for a day, I realized that notwithstanding the win, Dickie Don't still exhibits a fundamental flaw in his coaching style - a failure to correctly analyze the possibilities in front of him and make the best decision.

Some people think that outcomes are all that matter. These are the people who bet on hunches, who think the hit and run and sacrifice bunt make a lot of strategic sense, and, unfortunately, the same people who rush up the middle for no gain to set up a potential game winning 46 yard field goal. On the road. In swirling winds.

Decision Theory holds that making optimal decisions in the long run will have better outcomes than playing hunches or "going against the grain". Poker players know this. Any person whose job depends on strategy and different expected outcomes from decisions should know this. Dick Jauron clearly doesn't.

Just to recap the game situation - Bills have the ball at the Jets 49 with 2 time outs and almost 4 minutes to play. Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been less than stellar, but has been successful with short passes and screens to the flat. Playcalling from that point:

• Jackson no gain
• Fitzpatrick to Evans for 12 yards
• Jackson, 2 runs for 9 yards to the Jets 29.
• Timeout Bills (with 1:18 left)

At this point, you're looking at a 46 yard field goal if you gain no further yards. The Bills still have 1 time out and 1:18 left. The Bills have Lee Evans and Terrell Owens. The Bills are 1-4 and tied 13-13 with the Jets, playing on the road. The Bills are averaging a paltry 3.4 yards/carry on the day. Aren't at least 1 or 2 pass plays in order? Why not send Owens down the seam, or on a deep out and if it isn't there Fitzpatrick can throw it away (he is a Harvard man, after all).

Instead, Fitzpatrick runs for a first down on a broken play, Jauron sends Jackson into the pile (for a loss of 2) and lets the clock simply run down to 4 seconds, settling for a 46 yarder in the wind.

Lindell was 10/15 last year from 40-49 yards. He is now 3/5 this year from that distance. So Jauron was settling for (at best) a 60-67% chance of success, sacrificing a chance to gain additional yardage and get into a more comfortable spot for Lindell (11/11 from 30-39 yards last year). And why? Concerned about a turnover? Doesn't that show lack of confidence in your highly-paid all-pro offensive players? A bad decision in this case, clearly a decision with a lower expected value, ultimately resulted in a success (the Bills eventually won in overtime), but over time, these conservative decisions are what, year after year, cost the Bills close games (stretching all the way back to the Dallas MNF game 2 years ago).

Unfortunately, the football press (Lombardi) lauded Jauron after the game for his "professionalism" and getting his guys to play hard. I understand there is a contrast between the effort level in Washington and the effort level in Buffalo, but that's the definition of damning with faint praise, and it's maddening that Jauron has this rep of getting his guys to play hard which seems to shield him (in the national media at least) against criticism of his actual, you know, job performance.

Bottom line: if the Bills can't beat the Jets after forcing 6 turnovers, that's a monumental failure - a 3 point OT win is not something to assign credit to the coach for.

Gotta Give Some Props....

To Fire Dick Jauron, the site I tried to buy 2 years ago. I never heard back from the original owner, but this guy was able to get the site, and has done a great job re-tooling its look (and has apparently gotten some pub from WIVB in Buffalo). So go on over and check his site out. While we're at it - some other great Buffalo-centric sites that you should look at are:

Goose's Roost - mostly Sabres talk, but some biting stuff on Dick as well

Bfloblog - Indymedia source for all sports things Buffalo

Buffalo Rumblings - Horrible layout, but very intricate Bills personnel bits.

Well.. that's it for tonight. Until later, I leave you with this (it's been floating around teh interwebs lately):

Fire Dick Jauron! Goes Interactive

O.k., there are plenty of people stopping by the site (thank you). Hope you are enjoying the pathetic ranting. As a gift to you, I present the poll in the sidebar. Please take a second to register your opinion.

As a reminder - I am on record. Dick's expiration date (he kind of looks like sour milk personified, doesn't he?) is 11/2.

Whither Bill Cowher

One thing I keep hearing from disgruntled Bills fans is "why don't we just get Cowher in here"?

Setting aside the fact that Jauron is under contract through 2011 and the fact that Cowher seems to be enjoying himself in retirement, why would Cowher ditch his cushy studio job in the middle of the season for the frigid sidelines of Orchard Park (and Toronto)? Especially when the following other jobs are likely his for the taking in 2010:

• Dallas - whoo boy, you just know crazy-as-a-shithouse-rat Jerry Jones wants to dump Wade (last successful Bills coach) Phillips. Cowher would be the perfect fit for a team that needs a little toughening up and a little stronger leadership. And there are great skill positions in place on offense and defense (Romo, Barber/Jones/Choice, Williams, Ware). Will depend on whether Dallas gets a WC spot or not. 9-7 or worse and Wade is toast.
• San Diego - it's year 3 of the Norv Turner experience. With Denver running away with the West, San Diego will be left to compete with the likes of Baltimore, Miami/Jets/Patriots for a WC spot. If they don't get it (even if they go 10-6), I can see a splashy move (it's not like Randy Smith is afraid of firing a successful coach - he Turk'd Schottenheimer pretty quickly). Then ask yourself - who would you rather have - Rivers/LDT/Gates/V-Jack, or Edwards/Lynch/Owens/Evans? Thought so.
• Tennessee/Carolina/Washington/Jacksonville - These are all relatively comparable to the Bills given their personnel (and in DC's case, ownership) situations; still, Cowher may prefer them for one reason (geography in the case of Carolina or Tennessee) or exposure (in the case of Washington).

Obviously Cowher will have his pick of the litter if he decides to come back in 2010. There are at least 2 jobs that are much more appealing than the Bills position and others that he may like for personal reasons (he lives in North Carolina, so the Panthers job would look pretty appealing).

Sorry, Bills fans, we're going to be stuck with this guy for a little while yet:And hopefully, we won't end up with this guy next year:

Some Housecleaning and Where I Stand on Dick

Well, where I stand should be painfully obvious. I'm of the opinion that Dick got his job due to shady Ivy League connections, is the personification of the Peter Principle and who probably has cataracts (why else would he wear those Fugly sunglasses)? But I cross-posted the following to flesh out the abortion that is your Buffalo Bills in the comments - it's not all Dick's fault, but someone's gotta go:

This is the thing - he was a bad hire from the get go. He parlayed one good season* into some idea that he actually knew what he was doing. Peter Principle, people.

*(that was seriously lucky and fluky by the way - nobody seems to remember all of those overtime wins and Mike Brown TAINTs in that magical season. Take away that magical 13-3 and Jauron was 22-42, an approximately .350 winning percentage)

Now added to that are poor personnel decisions (signing that fat stiff Peters in the first place instead of developing someone who could actually contribute this year; sticking with Edwards, signing TO instead of beefing up the O-Line and secondary), obscenely poor coordinators the past few years (Fairchild was a joke) and an owner who just doesn't seem to care anymore, and you have a recipe for misery.

I still say 11/2/09 is Dick's Day of Reckoning.

At least this is somewhat promising.

But who would replace Disaster Dick? Nobody from inside the organization, as far as I can tell, has remotely relevant experience. To wit:

• Bobby April - 18 years in the NFL; Assistant Head Coach/ST Coach with the Bills. Has never been a head coach or coordinator in his career. Bills' version of Dante Scarnecchia.
• Perry Fewell - Love the hat, but he's been a D coordinator for only 3 years and I'd be surprised w/o a "real" O-coordinator (we'll get to Van Pelt) if a defensive specialist was given the reins.
• Alex Van Pelt - Josh McDaniels and Jon Gruden are the obvious parallels (and Gary Kubiak I guess) , but Mc-D was O-coordinator for 8 years under Belichick and Kubiak has been a bust. Gruden is a little more interesting a parallel, but even he had more coaching experience than Van Pelt (3 years as O-coordinator in Philly before assuming the reins in Oakland).

Van Pelt is the most likely interim candidate - which makes me wonder whether Wilson would pull the plug this year at all.

Answer? In the immortal words of Adriana La Cerva: "He'd f*cking bettuh".

In all Fairness to Dick

His players didn't help much today.

You may have noticed that posting has been light here at Fire Dick Jauron! Central. Well, that's mainly because I really don't give a $hit about Dick or this team at this point. I mean, we are talking about Hank Bullough Kay Stephenson levels of incompetence here, aren't we? Anyway, as a service to you, my faithful reader (I've checked sitemeter, there's only one), here are some lowlights from today's "game":

• 13 accepted penalties costing the Bills 75 yards, at least half of which were false starts. At home.
• punting on 4th and 1 from their own 40 with 4 minutes to play. Not to recycle Tuesday Morning QB's shtick, but the Bills are 1-3, they are playing the freaking Browns, they've actually been moderately successful running the ball. Going for it here instills confidence in your players Dick, that you believe in them. Instead, he sends in the punter. Congratulations. Now you are 1-4.
• Once again, an unimaginative playbook. Short passes, checkdowns, straight-up rushing offense.
• Ridiculous sunglasses. Sporting those is a fireable offense in itself.

Yes, the expiration date has well passed on the sour carton of milk that is Dick Jauron. I can smell the putridity from New York City, 420 miles away. It's long past time, Mr. Wilson. Or do you enjoy a .200 winning percentage (this year and over the last 15 games).

The 2001 Bears was a long time ago.

We all have it coming, kid.

If there's one thing I know about the Buffalo Bills it's that they never blow leads on Monday Night Football against a heavily favored opponent...

My facebook status at approximately 9:45 last night.

5 and a half minutes to go, an 11 point lead, what could possibly go wrong. In all fairness to the most underwhelming coach in football (pip pip cheerio Dick!), I can't lay much of the blame for that debacle at Jauron's feet. Sure, the Patriots had almost a 2-1 time of possession advantage resulting a surely gassed Bills D down the stretch, sure the Bills lost 2 of their prime defensive stoppers which should have caused the Bills to move to a more possession-oriented game, sure the Bills burned a time out coming out of the return of possession after the Pats second TD, but the main reasons for last night's 25-24 loss were the fundamental flaws in this team:

• Weak-ass offensive line that, when it isn't committing holding penalties, is giving up key sacks late in the game;
• Weakness in the secondary - getting burned twice on the same TE post pattern would be inexcusable if it wasn't so funny;
  
• Lack of defensive depth - the Bills were all over Brady in the first half, but could barely get any pressure on him in the second half after Kelsay went out and their D got tired from having to be on the field so much.

And of course, there's McKelvin:


Oh and this is great - looks like we won't be seeing Posluszny any time soon.

Anyway, next week is another week. (checks schedule - home game against Tampa. Surely the Bills can win this one?)

This week's estimate of Dick Jauron termination date: Monday, November 2.

Why hello there

Nice to see you. It's been a while. Let's review the bidding shall we?

Dick Jauron career record: 57-76

Dick Jauron record with Bills: 21-27

Ralph Wilson was feeling charitable when he gave Jauron a three year extension

But hey, he is 26-21-1 against the spread the past three years!

We'll be following Jauron a little more closely this year as commentators generally think that although his contract runs through 2011, 2009 may be (Inshallah) his last year.

Get ya popcorn ready.

Nobody Craps the bed.....

Like Dick Jauron (although Trent Edwards is giving him a run for his money). I watched the opening series yesterday and decided to go for a run, figuring the Bills' luck would turn by the time I got back (or that Edwards would get knocked out of the game and Losman would get to take another turn).

No such luck.

Dick, Dick, Dick... by half time I had tallied 4 fire-able offenses:

1. Not challenging the Wes Welker completion on the sideline. This is at least the second time you've failed to challenge a call that would have been overturned. What else do you have to do on the sideline? You're not coaching, so I'm not sure what else is left. At least Marty Schottenheimer would yell and scream while on the sidelines to cover up the fact that he stopped coaching years ago.

2. Forgetting that you have Marshawn Lynch in the backfield. 9 first half carries followed by 4 in the second half last week? This team's strength should be running the rock with timely passes by Edwards and the occasional 40 yard bomb sprinkled in.

3. Punting on 4th and 3 from the Pats' 39 with time running out in the first half. That's a real weak call down by 7 in a, let's face it, must win game (Div record now? 0-3). But even worse?

4. CALLING A TIME OUT AND THEN DECIDING TO PUNT. This was utterly moronic and it cost the Bills as they let the Pats be able to run out the clock in the first half when they stood a shot of getting the ball back to run a play. If you were going to punt, THAT ONLY MAKES SENSE IF YOU THINK YOU CAN GET THE BALL BACK. Taking a time out before the punt ensures that you will not get it back. Basically, you're taking a knee, happy with a 7 point deficit when a 4th and 3 conversion (which stands probably about a 40% chance of success) practically guarantees you field goal range, and gives you a possibility of more.

Dick, those drums are getting louder, and I hear a fife playing a tune. Sounds something like this:

"When Dickie Jauron gets fired again, hurrah, hurrah/
We'll give him a tasteful send-off then, hurrah, hurrah/
The fans will cheer, the press will shout/
'They finally turned that moron out'/
And we'll all feel gay/
When Dickie's sent on his way"

Can you hear that?

It's the soft pitter patter of a snare drum from somewhere over a fog-shrouded hill... soon to be followed by the deep beat of the bass drum and the syncopated sound of marching feet. The drumbeat is getting louder Dick. Don't go all wobbly on us now.

Oct. 19 - 5-1
Nov. 7 - 5-3